Madrid derby corresponding to day 24 of the Santander League to be played at the Estadio de Vallecas between Rayo Vallecano and Atlético de Madrid. We will need to show more than 55 points per card in the game, scoring 10 yellow and 25 red card.
Different fights for these two teams from the same city. Rayo Vallecano seeks to maintain the category, fighting for the lower part of the classification. 23 points in the 18th position to only 1 of the permanent positions. Atletico is touched to this situation and is forced to win if you do not want to say goodbye to the league championship fight. He has been overtaken by Real Madrid and is already 3rd with 44 points to 7 of Barcelona.
We arrived at this derby with 2 teams in need since both come from suffering two consecutive defeats. Rayo finished that good run of 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 games that allowed them to get some air and confidence in Michel but with these 2 losses it is already important to score points to return to the good dynamics. Atletico arrives of 2 important defeats by the fight of the championship. First against Betis in an important day for them since they knew the puncture of Barcelona but could not score, and the second in another Madrid derby against Real Madrid in the Metropolitan, where he was just outdone. This has relegated him to 3rd place and complicates his fight in the league title. Given this situation I think we will see 2 teams with a need to win and this can not help to have more intensity. They also come from the game against Real Madrid where they also see some injustice in the arbitration decisions made so they could be a little warmer with the members.
Regarding the theme cards we are not going bad. El Rayo is the 3rd with the most fouls made per game with 15’2 per game. Team with a somewhat lower budget that should throw more heart and courage to take the games which usually cause more faults. It is the eighth team with more yellows per game with 2’7 although it is the least provoked with 1’7. At home both averages go up to 2’8 and 2’1.
Atletico on the other hand we know that it is an intense team but that due to a greater dominion over its rivals it has an average less fouls with 13 per game. Receives 2’9 cards per game and causes 2’7, averages that also rise in games played as a visitor to 3 and 2’9.
It is a derby that due to the ideology of the ultras has given some intense moments outside the field but inside does not reflect so much hostility. That is reflected in a not very good h2h. In the first leg we only saw 2 cards but in a very poor encounter of fouls, with only 15. Although saying that this match was called by one of the most permissive referees of the category. The positive thing that can be learned is that in the Rayo Vallecano stadium, where more equality is seen, the line has been passed in the last 2 games in which they have faced each other and where cards are more common.
The referee of the match will be important to launch this pick, Jesus Gil Manzano. 11 games to date with an average of 6’27 yellow and 0’27 red per game (2º in yellow of all the championship), surpassing the line in 7 of those 11 parties. It is enough card in spite of not being of those that whistle more faults of the category, being 7º that less faults pita with 26’36 by party. He has called Atletico 2 times, and we would have a red (against Valencia 5 cards) and a green one (against Barcelona with 8 cards). First time he will whistle Lightning.
Therefore, we find a Madrid derby between two teams that come with a couple of consecutive defeats to their credit and that will want to change their dynamics, in a stadium that always squeezes a lot and with an arbitrator who does not hesitate to take the cards for a walk .
PREDICTION: Atl. Madrid to win @ 1,70
