You just never know what you’re going to get with the Premier League.
Heading into the 2025/26 season, everybody’s money was on Liverpool winning back-to-back titles.
The Reds stormed the league under new manager Arne Slot the previous season, spent big in the summer, and looked set to do it all again.
After a strong initial start, a 1-2 loss to Crystal Palace at the end of September has since triggered a horrendous run of form for Liverpool, losing 7 of their past 10 games in all competitions while getting thrown out of the title race.
The “Slot Machine” has gone bust, allowing Arsenal to take advantage and sit top of the table heading into the festive period.
Just behind them are a rejuvenated Manchester City, who are looking much better than this time last year following Sheikh Mansour’s recent spending spree.
It’s opened up what looks certain to be another Arsenal and City title, but is Mikel Arteta capable of getting the Gunners over the finish line this time around?
Arsenal Current 4/5 Title Favorites, Man City 9/4
The international break is now wrapped up and Arsenal will return to Premier League action with a near injury-free squad.
And with the Gunners sitting top of the Premier League with a 4-point lead over Pep’s men, most bookies have kept them as 4/5 title favorites according to BettingTools.
City currently have odds of 9/4, while Liverpool (11/1) and Chelsea (25/1) remain distant outsiders.
All signs do, indeed, point to another Arsenal and City title race as we head into the new year, something that will no doubt bring back traumatic memories for most Gunners.
The 2022/23 and 2023/24 campaigns saw the two Premier League giants neck-and-neck for large parts, but both times Pep Guardiola was able to get the better of his former apprentice.
Arsenal will be hoping it’s third time lucky this campaign, especially now that Arteta has arguably the strongest squad in the league and Man City are no longer the dominant force they were several years ago.
However, Pep has years of Premier League title winning experience under his belt and is fresh off spending more than £150m in the summer (to add to the £180m spent in previous January window).
City aren’t quite the force they used to be and are capable of dropping points at any moment, but there does seem to be a mini revival going on here for the Sky Blues.
Pep’s men went into the recent international break having smashed Liverpool 3-0 at the Etihad, with a rejuvenated Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku both having super seasons so far.
Of course, Erling Haaland has been the standout and cannot stop scoring at the moment having so far bagged 14 goals in 11 Premier League appearances (a Golden Boot certainty).
City’s new signings, including Tijjani Reijnders and Omar Marmoush, have also settled in nicely, leaving Pep with the perfect building blocks to go on yet another title charge.
Last season was a complete disaster for Pep both professionally and personally — which saw his City side drop out of the title race early and finish 3rd place — so you can bet the Spaniard will pull out all the stops to get his hands on the trophy this year, despite downplaying City’s title chances in every press conference.
Arteta Must Learn from Past Mistakes
Even though Man City are on a comeback and only trail Arsenal by 4 points, Mikel Arteta is still in control.
The 43-year-old has transformed Arsenal since joining the club, turning them into serious title contenders and a Champions League threat in a little over a half-decade.
However, Arteta has spent close to £1bn in the process and is now on a 5 season-long trophy-less run, so it’s now or never for the young manager.
The good news for Gunners supporters is that Arteta appears to be in the final “phase” of his initial blueprint he spoke about after joining Arsenal in 2019, with the Gunners boasting the best squad in the league while playing a style of football that’s both enthralling and highly pragmatic.
If Arteta has learnt from the two previous title races they were in with Man City, it should provide him with enough tactical know-how to land the club’s first Premier League title since the days of the Invincibles.
One of the major deciding factors will be whether or not Arsenal are able to strengthen in January, as this is something that cost them before.
Bringing in a new left winger and some strong backup for talisman Declan Rice would almost certainly give Arsenal extra fuel in the tank to edge it over Pep’s City, so there will be immense pressure on sporting director Andrea Berta over the coming months.
It’s a Toss-Up Between Arsenal and City, with Plenty of Drama to Come
Twists and turns can come at any moment in the Premier League, but the likelihood here is that Arsenal and City will be two clubs pushing for the title come May.
Liverpool look shot to pieces and Chelsea don’t quite have the squad yet to be competing at the top of the table, leaving only Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola’s sides as genuine title contenders.
It’s a fascinating one, as you would think the title has Arsenal’s name already written all over it now that Arteta has built the perfect squad and City have been on the decline since 2024.
Some shrewd summer signings and an in-form Erling Haaland have got City back in title contention, though, so don’t be surprised if Pep’s side manage to derail Arsenal’s title hopes for the third time.
This could go either way and so you might want to mark the 18 April 2026 on your calendar, as this is when Arsenal will visit Manchester City in what could be the defining fixture of the season.
