Thursday, from 19:00, Burnley moves to Greece for the Olympiakos duel, the first leg of the UEFA Europa League play-off. We were expecting a dark game, where the main stake of the English would be to miss the goal. Olympiakos knows he has to defend himself very well in order not to give the British a chance, especially at fixed phases.
Olympiakos is the favorite, but Burnley showed he is doing well on the continental level, being superior to Aberdeen and Istanbul BB in previous tours. Sean Dyche has at his disposal a well-anointed mechanic, who defends himself in organized block and counterattacks very well. But from Burnley they are still missing, injured, two very important players for offensive construction: Robbie Brady and Steven Defour. Without them, Burnley loses much of his creativity. Instead, Olympiakos has high quality players with experience in European Cups such as Natkho, Fortounis, Elabdellaoui, Guerrero, Torosidis, Miranda or Cisse.
Olympiakos has not yet begun the season in Greece.
Joe Hart will be back in Burnley’s gate, and this guarantees some defensive safety, with two other English goalkeeper still missing, with medical problems (Pope and Lindegaard). In the last round, Burnley lost homelessly with Watford (1-3) after a strange match. The hosts played well in the first half, when they broke 1-1 and a 5-0 on the corners and 60% to 40% of the possession, both in Burnley’s favor. After the break, however, Watford scored quickly for 2-1 and the hosts collapsed, without any corner to the end of the game. Burnley, on the other hand, is the kind of band that rebounds hard when led, so defensive security is primordial.
For the English, the advantage could be physical. Olympiakos has not yet started the domestic game and has played just a few nice matches (with PSV 0-4, Goztepe 1-0 and Leganes 0-0) before eliminating FC Luzern in the preliminary tour of UEL: 4-0 home and 3 -1 away. The clear difference in value and the exceptional motivation of the Greeks have led to this drastic score, but Burnley is a top level team and we are not expecting a tonight’s night gala.
Rather, it is quite possible that Olympiakos has the initiative and possession, being a more technical and skillful team that will have the stadium on his side. Burnley will be placed in a 4-5-1 pass-through, meant to reject the adverse attacks, which is why the bet on few goals sounds the most profitable. At the same time, Burnley will find it difficult to get to the finish line in front of an opponent who is accustomed to dominating and keeping rivals away from his own.
PREDICTION: Olympiakos Piraeus to win @ 1.60
