Grêmio and América Mineiro face each other in Arena do Grêmio, in a match for the 11th round of Serie A. There is only record of 2 recent direct matches between these two teams: on 20-11-2016, which ended with the Grêmio victory by (3-0), and on 07/31/2016, which ended with a draw by (0-0). In this game the home factor may be decisive, since the America Mineiro presents considerable differences in their results at home and as a visitor.
Grêmio:
After 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, the home team is currently in the 7 th position, with 16 points won. In their last match, they lost with Palmeiras at home (0-2), after in the previous match they won (0-2) away, in a match against Bahia. This is a team that usually maintains its competitive levels in home and away matches, since in the last 30 matches they register 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in away matches, with 21 goals scored and 9 conceded; against 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss at their stadium, with 30 goals scored and 5 conceded. For the championship, Grêmio won 6 points out of 15 possible points, after 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in the last 5 home matches. The defense has been strong and only suffered goals in 3 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In their home matches there is a tendency for few goals, since in 47 of the last 76 they disputed there were less than 3 goals.
The Gremio is one of the most traditional Brazilian soccer clubs, since throughout its history it conquered the Serie A of the Brazilian championship twice, being the most recent title won in 1996. In this year’s Gaúcho Championship, the team won the title by beating Brazil in Pelotas with a 7×0 aggregate. In the Serie A of the Brazilian Championship of 2018, the team has been trying to stay at the top of the table and decrease their score for the leader. In the last five games that the Gremio played in their stadium, in three did not suffer goals. We believe that in this confrontation that will happen again, since the attack of America is not as good as that of Palmeiras, the last team to score against the Gremio in the Arena and that is why the Guild will improve its defensive system in relation to the last game.
América Mineiro:
The away team is currently in the 11 th position of the league, with 13 points won, after 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses. In the penultimate match, they won in a home match against Atlético PR, by (3-1). In the last match, they lost in a home match against Atlético Mineiro, by (1-3). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, stronger with the help of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches they register 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in away matches, with 14 goals scored and 17 conceded; against 10 wins and 5 losses at their stadium, with 22 goals scored and 17 suffered. In the last away game in this competition lost (1-0) to Corinthians. In the last 4 away matches for the championship América Mineiro has 1 draw and 3 losses, so they won 1 point out of 12 possible.
For this competition, they have not won any of the last 4 away matches. The team has conceded goals in 8 of the last 10 matches, so they have not presented great defensive solidity, but their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored goals in 8 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In 10 matches in this competition, they have only 1 comeback in the 5 matches they have conceded the first goal. There is 1 period that stands out in the last 20 away matches for all competitions: they have suffered 8 of their 20 goals between minutes (76′-90 ‘).
América Mineiro never won the Serie A title, but was a two-time champion of Serie B, the last time in 2017, a title that gave him access to the elite of Brazilian football. Currently, in the 2018 season, the team comes in eleventh position, only with four points more than the teams that are in the relegation zone. As for the campaign of America in this Brazilian 2018, we see that the team is doing well in most of the games it does at home, but away from home it has not achieved the same performance, since in four away matches it has accumulated three defeats and a draw, therefore, America must lose this game before the Guild.
PREDICTION: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.76
