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Posts Tagged ‘World Championship’

12 Sep

Match preview: Turkey – USA

Turkey invested quite a lot of money into this WC and at the end it somehow paid off for them. They’ve reached the finals and the clash against the “Dream Team” so the goal is accomplished. Now, Bosa Tanjevic’s team is aware they will hardly pass this last obstacle so they’re basically making the 2nd place equal the 1st to them claiming how they’ve already become world champs, excluding the USA squad, which is just out of this world. The way they won in the semis is pretty questionable though, as they might have had one of the biggest ref supports out of all their matches so far at the WC, where the refs called each harmless contact against their opponent and the basket they’ve scored 0.5 seconds before the end of the game is a result of pure luck. They were mostly inferior against Serbia, being down for the entire match, but celebrated thanks to the home court advantage and now they’ve got what they’ve dreamed about. Unfortunately, the story ends right there for them.

Easy path to the gold

USA will take the gold quite easily and without much sweat. They would certainly have a more difficult job against Serbia than against the hosts, but of course I do expect USA to play this match fully focused and be totally alert just as if they were playing in the NBA playoff finals for example. The most efficient team of this championship will surely try to make the show out of this game and won’t at all hope for some intense and tight game, so I’m convinced Durant, Odom, Billups and co. have more than enough quality to easily complete this mission and take home what they have come for – the World Championship trophy.

USA with no problems

Turkey is very pleased with what they’ve achieved so far and the clash against the Americans is an opportunity for them to see where they are currently standings in comparison to the world’s best team, and I do believe they’re quite far away from them. USA will play the best they can, meaning without much empty minutes and exhibition but primarily as a team using tough defense and offensive dominance. The Turks will hardly manage to play their usual game, and this spread is quite small as USA can create this lead within 2 minutes with no problem. I personally expect them to win by at least 15, and to easily take the gold. Anything else would be a surprise. Good luck.

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Prediction:

Tip: USA -9.5
Odd: 1.85
Bookie: Bet-at-home


12 Sep

Match preview: Spain – Argentina

Spain disappointed on this World championship since they are current champions and all expect to at least fight for medals if not to defend the title.They didn’t have luck in game with Serbia but they should have avoid them if they played better in their group where they lost to Lithuania and France.Know they will fight with Argentina for 5th place.They are favorites since they already beat them in friendly this summer but I’m not that sure in their motivation.They started bad with Slovenia but somehow turn the game in their favor with great 4th quarter.

Made good impression on this championship

Argentina played some very good games on this championship especially against Brazil but were stopped from Lithuania.Their best player is Scola who score more then 25 points per game and they rely much on him. I think they will be more motivated side today but will need more then luck to beat Spain.They bounce back with win against very good on this tournament Russia team and will try to finish with another one against Spain which will be really good achievement.

Fast pace in not that important game

I would not touch the handicap in this game since it is set properly and can go either way.Maybe some value is on Argentina but they have bad history with Spain.They lost in Japan and also in friendly this summer.Instead I will choose over since this is game for 5th place which is not that important as fight for medals and on this championship we saw really high scoring quarter finals and semifinals. Both this teams I rate as high scoring Navarro and Fernandez from one side and Scola and Delfino from other can promise us lot of points and fast basketball.

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Prediction:

Tip: Over 162.5
Odd: 1.85
Bookie: Tipico


11 Sep

Match preview: Serbia – Turkey

Serbia has again proven that they are one of the best teams in the world, and they took their revenge on the defending world champs, Spain, in the quarterfinals, for beating them in the last year`s EC finals. They entered the match very motivated from the start, and controlled the match all throughout, losing their focus a bit at the start of the 2nd half, but they were leading for 39 out of 40 minutes of the game, being in a great shooting mood, and also playing tough defense. Teodosic`s triple from 9 meters with 3 seconds to go decided the game, but so did Velickovic`s, Bjelica`s, Keselj`s great performances… They have come to Turkey to regain their old glory and domination, and with Ivkovic they are on a good path to do it.

Fired up hosts

I`ve written about Turkey about a month ago, during preseason, and back then I stated they possess a great team and will be a big threat to anyone at the upcoming WC. So it was. Turkey is playing way above their capabilities, carried by their fanatic fans and led by experienced coach Tanjevic, and his knowledgeable coaching staff. They have two NBA stars, captain Hedo Turkoglu and Ersan Ilyasova, who have created such a huge difference for this supposedly average squad. Ilyasova is most often the man of the match when Turkey plays, hitting terrific 3-pointers, dunking, penetrating into the paint with ease, and playing good defense, while Hedo started hitting some clutch shots lately, But the biggest surprise there are some supposedly fringe players such as Guler or Savas, who have also been outstanding at this WC, so no surprise they crushed Slovenia by almost 30 points difference in the quarters.

Huge battle

Serbia always had good time in Istanbul, last time winning the EC there back in 2001, beating the hosts on their way to gold. This time things look very similar to that tournie. Serbia finally created a great team and will be a very tough matchup for Turkey. Normally, if this was played on the neutral court, the odds would favor Serbia but obviously a huge home factor counts in for a lot more than I expected, at least for the bookies. I really don`t think Turkey will be able to play their wild run and gun basketball against Serbia, which has got some great defenders and is lethal on the offense from all positions. This match will be all about who takes the control early. Turkey will have their first huge and most serious test so far and I think they will fail to deliver. Serbia is in my eyes a better team, with better individuals and more brain on the court. It should be enough to beat inspired Turkey and their home crowd. The odds are unbelievably high to miss. Good luck.

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Prediction:

Tip: 1
Odd: 3.42
Bookie: Expekt


11 Sep

Match preview: USA – Lithuania

USA has won all games so far but they struggle in lot of them .They covered only two handicaps so far and that is because this team is very young and play first tournament together.They had also trouble with adjusting to European basketball rules and also there was underestimation of opponents. But they are now in semifinals where there is no room for mistakes and I expect motivated and discipline game from theire side.They receive average of 68 points per game.

Lithuania achieved theire maximum

Lithuania is also without loss so far but they should take theire first today.They give theire maximum in game with Argentina where theire shot was amaising with 55% for 2 points and 50% for 3 point.Today they should collapse against USA tough defense and I think they won’t score much.Theire average per game is 81 point including 104 with Argentina, 92 with New Zeland and 84 with Jordan.In all other they were under 80 something I expect to happened today also.

USA will advance and show better defence

USA are again big favorite but we first time see handicap lower then 20.Well bookies are probably impressed from Lithuania display against Argentina and USA struggling against Russia.They also raise line for U/O to 175.But I think this is mistake.This teams played friendly game this summer and result was only 77:61.I don’t expect that low score again but difference is almost 40 points.Also I don’t expect Lithuania to repeat game like against Argentina.Since I’m not fan of big handicaps I will leave it and rather try some over/under bet, but which.Well Americans disappoint me with Russia allowing them to score 79 points but I think they will compensate to me today not allowing Lithuanians to go over 80.They didn’t receive more than that from any team on this World Championship even Croatia, Slovenia and Russia were really close.But this game has more importance since it is semifinal where Americans lost on previous World championship from Greece in high scoring game allowing to Greeks 101 point. Krzyzevsky still has nightmares of that game so will not let same thing to happened again.

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Prediction:

Tip: Lithuania under 80.5
Odd: 1.70
Bookie: Sportingbet


09 Sep

Match preview: USA – Russia

USA are biggest favorite to win world championship and they are doing fine so far winning all theire games with high margin except with Brasil.They are atletic team that play very hard defence allowing opponents to score average of 66 points in theire games. It is true that they played some crapy teams that score 51 Iran, 57Tunisia and 66 Angola but they also limited Brasil to 68 and Slovenia and Croatia to 28 and 26 points on half time.In second half it was all over and run and gun basketball was played and both Slovenia and Croatia scored amaising 49 and 52 points.Today I don’t expect such thing to happened since this is quarter final and approach would be serious and theywill play tough to the end.Also worth to mention is that in preparation period Americans limited Lithuania to 61, Greece to 59 and France to 55 points.

Russia had easy schedule

Russia made big success entering in quarter finals but theire way was rather easy.They pass very weak group with only one loss 56:65 from only good team in this group Turkey. Other results were 75:66 with very disapointng Puerto Rico, 72:66 with autsiders Ivory Coast,89:80 win against China and questionable win against Greece 73:69.As we can see they didn’t score much in any game except with with China which received a lot also in other games. If we add game with New Zeland where they score 78 points theire average is 73 points. Without China game it is down to 70.They very defensive team under Blat and they also don’t receive much.In preparation games they scored 63 to Greece,65 to New zeland,63 t Serbia and 73 to both Germany and Slovenia.

Two teams with good defenses

Both this teams are very good defensive teams but unlike Americans which ca score a lot on a good day, Russians are not capable to do that and especially not against team like USA.They know if they run on the floor theywill be destroyed like other teams and will try to slow the game.Blat is good coach and he is very motivated to show good tactic since he is half American.He also provoked them with some statements about contraverse game from 1972 Olympics which just remind them about once upon a time great rivalry between both nations.Thgis game smelss like a slow game with lkot of fight but instead of under I will rather take under on Russia since Americans are unpredictable if theire shooting is good they can destroy Russians from 3 point or with fast break points, while I’m more confident in Russia 20 second attacks and struggling to create position for open shot.Also they are not good scorers since they don’t have Kirilenko or Holden like previous years when they were good team.Russia under 70 points with money back if exactly 70 is my choise.

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Prediction:

Tip: Russia under 70 points
Odd: 1.9
Bookie: Expect


08 Sep

Match preview: Lithuania – Argentina

Lithuania has recorded some really nice results at this WC so far, but I quite honestly think they have reached their maximum and can`t do any better than this. No doubt Lithuania is very satisfied with what they have achieved, especially because their team arrived to Turkey without many of their best players, and only with their superstar Kleiza as the big threat. He did prove that role with his 19.5 ppg, and was especially convincing in their 1/8 finals match against China, scoring 30 points and his team would have struggled a lot more if they didn`t have him in the squad. When Kleiza isn`t on the court, they are more-less an average side, able to shoot threes and play fast, transitional basketball, but other than that they don`t have that much quality and are quite a “shallow” squad without much heart and soul.

Superb performance

As I expected, Argentina proved they are never to be underestimated when they entered their 1/8 finals clash against Brazil, beating them in a tight finish, where their experience prevailed, and of course a fantastic performance by Scola, who again hit many amazing shots and was the clutch man in the paint during the entire game, maybe even playing one of his best games in the career for Argentina. But, Argentina was not only Scola: Prigioni, Delfino were very important and another veteran Jasen jumped out and proved once again this team is really something special, even without Ginobili and Nocioni. They are now having high hopes for the remaining part of the tournament, and after this win, they are surely confident they could beat anybody out there.

Argentina to take their chance

I think the whole momentum is definitely on Argentina`s side right now, and they are actually one of the most stable teams at this WC from the psychological perspective and that they literally use their heads on the court, which could turn out to be a very useful thing in the upcoming matches for them. So, on one hand we`ve got a very wise team full of experienced and quality players, and on another a bit limited side that plays quite one-sided basketball and relies a lot on the long-range shooting, and besides hasn`t got too much more to offer. For me, the choice here is more than clear and I am jumping on this spread before it gets much bigger: Argentina will be in the semifinals. Good luck.

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Prediction:

Tip: Argentina -3
Odd: 1.98
Bookie: Pinnacle


08 Sep

Match preview: Turkey – Slovenia

Turkey had no problems beating France in the 1/8 finals and it could be said they even cruised into the quarters as their opponent was way below the average, so the hosts` lead was increasing for the entire 40 minutes of the game. They did relax a bit towards the very end, when their huge lead which almost reached 30 points, diminished a bit, but still the performance they have shown was pretty impressive. Ilyasova, Arslan, Turkoglu and especially Guler were great, their centers also had no troubles under the basket so overall they played quite nice, with many steals and coach Tanjevic`s zone defense also worked out solid for the most part of the game. They were carried by their fans and the convincing win just had to happen.

Motivated

Slovenia showed all of its power against mediocre Australia, when they didn`t allow their opponents to score a single point for the first 6 minutes of the game, showing they can play solid on both ends of the court. Dragic is an amazing guard, while Lakovic, Nachbar and Becirovic also played terrific and their tall players also proved its worth. They proved they are at least 2 classes better than Australia and were very motivated to win from the start. They surely want to do even better than they did in the last EC and they are aware their team has enough depth and quality to get far, so undoubtedly they will go for a win in this game.

A good battle

These two sides are pretty evenly-matched and as a matter of fact I don`t see a single advantage for Turkey except the home crowd. Don`t really know why the bookies set such a high spread as Slovenia`s win here is quite possible, and one very tight game is expected all throughout, while there are very few chances Turkey will win this by a blowout or something, as they simply don`t have the quality to defeat a team as good as Slovenia is in a convincing manner. So, to make the long story short, Slovenia is actually my favorite to win this match, so I see this spread as quite a nice gift. Good luck.

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Prediction:

Tip: Slovenia +7
Odd: 1.96
Bookie: Pinnacle


08 Sep

Match preview: Serbia – Spain

Serbia barely won against Croatia in the 1/8 finals even though many expected them to record an easy win. But the public disregarded the fact that the matches between Serbia and Croatia have and will always be close and tough no matter of the form and quality, and that`s what we`ve seen this time as well. Serbia clearly had more quality but they played way below their level and allowed the Croatians to control the rebounding and attack their basket whenever they wanted, while on the offensive end they struggled but somehow they eventually won thanks to pure class only. It`s sure they will play much better against Spain, as Serbia`s aspirations are to take one of the medals at this WC.

Solid play

Spain isn`t anywhere near the team from the last EC when they comfortably took the title, as they managed to lose two matches so far at the WC and are showing a bit of inconsistency in their performances. Obviously they are feeling the absences of Pau Gasol and Calderon quite a lot and it`s hurting their game, but Marc Gasol, together with Navarro, Garbajosa, Rudy and Ruby, are still composing a great team that is able to beat anybody in the world. They struggled against Greece in the first half of that match, playing a very close game but they finally broke them down in the end, and recorded a nice win against a respectable opponent, which earned them a chance to fight for the semifinals.

An even clash

The bookies are giving too much credit to Spain just because of their previous achievements and not caring much about the two huge absences they`ve got in their squad, due to which their play has changed quite a lot. Serbia isn`t without chances in this one, and I am sure they will start out motivated, playing tough defense and being much more focused in offense as they were against Croatia, which has got to guarantee us an exciting and tight game, full of turnarounds and even a possible win for Serbia, which would not be such a surprise as the bookies are representing it in the odds. Anyhow, decided not too risk much with outrights in this phase so I`ll just advise you to try with Serbia to cover. Good luck.

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Prediction:

Tip: Serbia +6.5
Odd: 1.95
Bookie: 888sport


07 Sep

Match preview: Lithuania – China

The first-placed team from their group, Lithiania, which proved they can play well despite the numerous absences, is a young fast-paced side that on a good day can score even 25 points per quarter. The Spaniards felt that the best, as well as totally defensively-oriented France. They are playing good in streaks, running good fast-breaks, Kleiza is dominant and almost anyone in China’s squad can stop them from scoring below 20 per quarter. Their results: 09. 02. 10 Lithuania – Lebanon 84:66 (16:16, 23:16, 25:19, 20:15) 09. 01. 10 Lithuania – France 69:55 (11:24, 13:6, 28:11, 17:14) 08. 31. 10 Spain – Lithuania 73:76 (22:11, 21:24, 21:18, 9:23) 08. 29. 10 Lithuania – Canada 70:68 (12:20, 21:23, 22:14, 15:11) 08. 28. 10 Lithuania – New Zealand 92:79 (25:24, 25:10, 24:27, 18:18).

Wild runners

China was the 4th in their respective group and they only failed to play good in the offense in their last game against the hosts, while in all other they went high above this set total. They don’t have any problems in the offense, moreover, they are struggling on the defensive end, and turnovers… they are playing real street basketball with lots of running even shooting threes from the fast-breaks having an excellent executor in the offense (NBA player Yi), and when they don’t get it going, he can force shots.. Their results: 09. 02. 10 Turkey – China 87:40 (15:6, 24:7, 27:12, 21:15) 09. 01. 10 Russia – China 89:80 (15:21, 25:22, 23:19, 26:18) 08. 31. 10 Puerto Rico – China 84:76 (20:21, 24:16, 19:20, 21:19) 08. 29. 10 China – Cote d’Ivoire 83:73 (21:17, 20:16, 25:18, 17:22) 08. 28. 10 Greece – China 89:81 (25:18, 22:19, 18:25, 24:19).

An easy shootout

This is a quarterfinals match who is scheduled for the last day of this stage of the tournament, and these sides will have enough time to rest so I expect them to be fresh. Lithuania’s win shouldn’t be in question as they are far more superior, but considering the certain oscillations they have in their game, I expect China to score above 70-75, which should be enough for the over bet. Good luck!

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Prediction:

Tip: Over 152.5
Odd: 1.85
Bookie: 7


06 Sep

Match preview: Argentina – Brazil

Argentina barely missed the first spot in their group, which would guarantee them a much easier path to the medal but anyway, they have got enough quality to match any team in the world. Surely, they are a bit old, and rely too much on the individuals and despite their sloppy play in the first couple of matches at the WC, they showed a very good display against Serbia, clearly wanting to win and being close to do that for the most of the game. They had a double digit lead in the first quarter but failed to play good defense, which helped Serbia get back in the game, and later to turn it around completely and lead by 9. However, thanks to another terrific performance by Scola (32 points), Delfino`s great momentum from the distance and of course experienced Prigioni, the Argies again came back and were just one shot away from the victory. In this clash, they will be boosted by the return of their center, Oberto, and if they only had Nocioni and Ginobili on the squad, undoubtedly they would be the main title candidates.

Dangerous

Brazil is an amazing team. It seems like some great basketball is being played in this country, despite the fact they haven`t recorded a good result at the big competitions for a very long time. It seems that this year their team has finally matured and a few really classy players have stepped up and are playing great collectively. Despite the fact, they are playing without their dominant NBA center Nene who is out for the WC through an injury, they have enough quality players at all positions. At the center they`ve got two excellent NBA centers Splitter and Varejao, and on the shooting positions they`ve got Huertas, Machado, and playmaker Barbosa, which creates a killer lineup that is very fast and aggressive, so no surprise they were just one shot away from beating the `Dream Team` in the group stages.

Gauchos to defeat Kariokas

I am taking this bet 5 days before the game as I believe the odds will drop even more. They were opened at 2.35 for Argentina`s win and have already dropped by 0.1 in less than 24 hours and by the time people realize this should actually be a totally even match, the value will surely be gone. Brazil is a good team but no way they are better than Argentina, who`s got the experience on their side, and that should be the key thing here. Argentina will probably control the game tempo here and they will try to play slower which shouldn`t suit Brazil much, and I believe in one very close game that will also be pretty nervous and intense. Eventually, I think Argentina can come out as a winner simply because they know how to win these matches, and their big rival from South America has been inferior to them for years. I expect to see that domination continue, at least for a few more years. The odds are very valuable. Good luck.

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Prediction:

Tip: 1
Odd: 2.25
Bookie: Bluesq


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