AMERICA MG VS CHAPECOENSE-SC PREVIEW & PREDICTION
Match of the day 12 of the Brasileirao Serie A that faces in the Stadium Raimundo Sampaio of Belo Horizonte to America-MG as local and to Chapecoense as visitor.
It is 2 teams with a similar level that are in the lower middle of the ranking both tied to 13 points in the 13th and 14th places, the locals have won 4 matches, tied 1 and lost 6 of the 11 played while The visitors in their 11 matches have won 3, 4 draws and 4 defeats.
The America in its stadium has disputed 18 points of which it has managed to remain with 12 and it has let escape 6 of them with 4 victories and 2 defeats being 4º better local of the competition. The Chapecoense as visitor has achieved only 2 points of the 18 played thanks to 2 draws having lost the remaining 4 games.
In addition to being 2 similar teams in terms of level and points another thing they have in common is that both teams tend to Over and their games tend to leave us many goals, America in 11 games has scored 14 goals and received 18 to an average of almost 3 goals per match while the Chapecoense in its 11 games has scored 14 goals and received 19 leaving his average in just 3 goals per game so seeing a game of goals is expected.
But I want to go a step further and I have focused on analyzing if their goals usually arrive in the second half or indistinctly at any time of the match and the results have surprised me pleasantly. The America is a curious case because when it acts as a visitor his game is quite defensive giving rise to matches that barely exceed the average of 2.5 goals but when he plays in his stadium his average increases to 3.2 goals per match and curiously 12 of the 19 goals that have been seen in their 6 home games have come in the first half, which is why I finally opted for the Over +1 goal in the first half.
The numbers of Chapecoense as visitors in this aspect are worse than those of the America as a local but even so they are not bad to obtain our green since it is a team with an average of 2.6 goals in their home games but their number increases up to the 3.3 average goals when he acts as a visitor, his case is just the opposite of America, he leaves us more goals when he plays as a visitor therefore we are joined for this game to the 2 teams in the situation where more goals are left, that is, the America as a local and the Chapecoense as a visitor. Analyzing the moment of the matches where most goals Chapecoense leaves us we see that 7 of the 20 goals that have been seen in their games were in the first half, this statistic is bulked by the game against Atletico-PR where the result rest was 0-0 and ended with 5-1 for Atletico-PR, removing this strange case that happened in the first game away from home of the Chapecoense in the competition, the statistic would be 7 goals in the first parts and 7 in the second parties in the last 5 matches of the Chapecoense league as a visitor.
Taking the Over +1 to rest in the 6 games played by each team in this situation would have in the case of America as local 5 green and 1 red, ie 83.33% green and 16.67% red while in the 6 Chapecoense games as a visitor we would have 2 green, 1 null and 3 red, ie 33.33% green, 16.67% null and 50% red, but as with the null we lose money would be 50% without redding and 50% reding in his 6 games as a visitor.
Although the numbers of the Chapecoense are worse than those of America I think that by playing among them, the very good numbers of the Americas are compensated with those of the Chapecoense and it is quite possible that we can take the green, as sometimes the ball is capricious and even existing occasions and going the game as expected do not want to enter I prefer to save with that if we see a single goal in the first half is null and we return the money wagered but for the bravest the option of +1.5 goals to rest is paid on 3.40, a somewhat high fee in my opinion.
Being a good share I recommend being prudent with the stake because to enter any bet at half time is always risky even seeing many options to hit it, I opted for stake 2.
PREDICTION: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.60