We are going with another match of the Eredivisie, which will face Ajax and Breda. We will need to not score both and see 3 goals or more, that is, Ajax win without conceding and scoring more than 2 goals.
Ajax is in the 2nd position and if you want to approach the leader you should not miss more matches since you have only achieved 4 of the last 12 possible points. 50 points for them to 6 of the PSV that already has a considerable distance. The Breda meanwhile will have very difficult to avoid the decline this year, bottom of the league with 16 points to 7 of the posts of permanence.
The pick has two parts. Theoretically the easiest are the goals of Ajax, which I think should go without problems. Top scorer in the category with 72 goals (3’42 goals per game). Of those 72, as local have been 42 (raising the average to 4’2 per game). Of the 10 games he has played in his stadium, he has only been in less than 3 goals in favor we need.
In this part it also helps that they face one of the worst teams in the category as reflected by the classification. He has received 47 goals so far in the league, with 27 of them as visitors. Of the 10 games away from home in 5 he has received 3 or more goals.
The other part is to keep his goal to 0. This part is more random because in Holland we already know that defenses appear as much as they want and it costs more to maintain a defensive structure throughout the game so that in any isolated move the goal may arrive, but the difference in level between both makes me think that Breda will have few chances to score and will have to be very efficient to score a goal.
Ajax is the second least scored team in the league with 19 goals conceded, of which only 6 have been at home. He has maintained the goal to 0 in 12 of the 21 games (57%), a percentage that goes up to 70% in home games, where he has achieved it in 7 out of 10. Of those 7 games, in 6 he has scored 3 goals or more so two would have given 6 green in their 10 home games.
The Breda also helps in this aspect since it is the less goalscorer team in the league with only 22 goals (next to the Graafschap), being only 6 as a visitor. He has not scored in 10 of 21 games (48%), which also goes up when he plays away with 6 games out of 10 without scoring (60%). Also note that Breda is struggling to score with the most powerful teams in the league. He has played 5 games against the first 4 and has only managed to score in 1.
In the first leg we saw a prototype of what I think this match will be, where Ajax won by 0-3 games and Breda only made 5 shots in the whole match.
Therefore, we united the superiority of Ajax with their need to win and not say goodbye to their options for the championship in their match against the bottom of the league that I hope will not put a lot of trouble in this Ajax and not offer much fight in this match.
PREDICTION: Over 3,5 goals @ 1,43
