On 19th May at 5.30pm at Wembley Stadium, Manchester United and Chelsea will clash in the FA Cup Final. It will be the third time that the pair have met in the Wembley showcase, with United winning 4-0 in 1994 (to secure Alex Ferguson’s first double) and Chelsea winning 1-0 in the first final at the ‘new’ Wembley.
Below is a betting breakdown for the 2018 Final, which will look at both probability and value:
To lift the trophy:
United are odds-on across the board, with the best price coming in around 5/6 with Betway. Chelsea can be found at evens with most bookmakers. United must be favoured however. Mourinho usually gets it right in these types of games and Chelsea still have all sorts of problems behind the scenes.
Prediction: United
To win in 90 mins:
Despite Chelsea’s issues, the sense of occasion at Wembley should ensure that this is a close game. You could certainly see a draw (11/5), with the match being decided in extra time or penalties.
Prediction: Draw
Over/Under:
The last 12 meetings between these two sides have averaged 1.75 goals, so under 2.5 at 8/13 seems the way to go.
Half time/Full time:
There is plenty of value to be found in this market, perhaps with Chelsea winning at half time and a draw at full time at 14/1. The same odds are offered for United to be winning at half time and a draw for full time. Why not use a Betfred free bet to back both options?
Prediction: Chelsea half time/Draw full time
Result and BTTS:
The draw and both teams to score looks a solid bet. However, some bookmakers are as low as 3/1 on that outcome. The best odds are around 18/5.
Prediction: Draw and BTTS
Method of Victory:
If the match does indeed end up a draw, you may want to supplement your selection by backing Chelsea or United to win in extra time or penalties. The breakdown is Chelsea at 11/1 to win in extra time, 10/1 on penalties. United are 9/1 to win in extra time and 10/1 to win on penalties. Again, it’s a tough market to predict, so might be worth using a bookies promotion to cover yourself.
Prediction: United to win in extra time:
Correct Score (90 mins):
Predicting correct scores can sometimes be difficult, but we will apply the same theory that this match will be tight, perhaps ending in a draw. It’s around 11/2 for the 1-1 draw at 90 minutes, 15-2 for both teams to draw a blank. The 2-2 draw pays up to 16/1 (William Hill) and a 3-3 thriller has odds of 90/1 with several bookmakers.
Prediction: 1-1
Final thoughts:
Much of these predictions are based on the premise of this being a tight final, low scoring and one where United eventually come out on top. It’s true that United should have the psychological edge over Chelsea, especially after their recent comeback victory over the Blues.
However, Chelsea should not be dismissed, despite reports that a huge amount of the betting is going in United’s favour. In Hazard, Willian and others, they have the players to hurt United and come away with the victory.
But, if you are hovering one way or another, this final stat should help you decide: Jose Mourinho holds an 85.71%-win percentage (12/14) in major cup finals. That’s a good omen for United.
